The transition in Kazakhstan initially gave the impression of a negotiated settlement—Nazarbayev retained security guarantees, political clout, and the honorific «Elbasy», and the system regained equilibrium.
Yet January 2022 marked a turning point: Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s camp began to erode the Nazarbayev clan’s positions by revising accords and appropriating assets. The campaign is intensifying, and the family and its holdings are expected to come under increased attack after the patriarch’s death.
As an undoubtedly intelligent person, Nazarbayev cannot fail to understand this. And – he cannot refrain from taking steps to protect his assets, which will inevitably come under threat in the near future. He seeks such protection from the President of Russia, on whom Kazakhstan depends in many respects, and whose current president, Tokayev, despite attempting to demonstrate independence, is quite obviously under Putin’s influence.
The fact that Nazarbayev regularly visits Putin is not hidden by anyone – it is impossible to conceal what everyone can see. Official reports about the meetings between Nazarbayev and Putin are deliberately neutral: «discussion of regional stability», «friendly dialogue», «contribution to integration».
However, sources in political and diplomatic circles indicate a different format – the talks take place without protocol, without the press, and without final communiques. Moreover, these meetings, beyond the ceremonial image, carry no apparent substantive weight – no decisions are made, and no documents are signed.
And there cannot be any – although Nazarbayev holds the title of «Elbasy», this title does not grant him any authority to conclude agreements at the international level. He is not the president of the country. Furthermore, his visits to Putin strangely coincide with peaks of pressure on Nazarbayev’s assets and entourage in Kazakhstan.
Individuals immersed in local political realities have long concluded that Nazarbayev is not discussing geopolitics, but personal guarantees – safety, the inviolability of capital, and the future of his heirs after his death. Why does he do this with Putin? Clearly, because he understands that only Moscow can act as the ultimate external guarantor, capable of influencing both Kazakhstani elites and the distribution of assets.
Over three decades in power, the Nazarbayev family has accumulated colossal resources: banking assets, stakes in oil and gas and infrastructure projects, elite real estate in Europe, the UAE, and Russia, as well as offshore structures registered under relatives and trusted individuals. As long as Nazarbayev held full power in the country, there was no need to worry about these assets.
And even after the transition of power, initially, no one touched them. But after January 2022, agreements were broken, and a process of revision began: Tokayev’s clan started dividing Nazarbayev’s assets, realizing that in a plundered country, there was little left to divide.
The revision of Nazarbayev’s assets followed a classic scenario: some assets were returned to the state to create the «right» image for the public; criminal cases were initiated against some of Nazarbayev’s close associates and as a means of pressure on the particularly stubborn, which again created the necessary atmosphere.
As a result, what Lenin once called «expropriation of the expropriators» took place: some members of the Nazarbayev clan fled, some were imprisoned, and some switched sides. A portion of the assets changed owners. But, as expected, this process of change was not a one-time event but a permanent one. This is what prompted the patriarch of the clan to seek protection. There was none within the country, so Nazarbayev turned to someone with whom he had dealt for many years and who has influence over Tokayev – Vladimir Putin.
The combined wealth of Nazarbayev family members involved in business structures, including banks, media, and industry, is estimated by Forbes Kazakhstan at around $10.98 billion. And this is only for those family members who made it onto the list of the wealthiest, without accounting for hidden assets.
Thus, there is much to discuss. Moreover, a significant portion of the assets has been transferred to Russian jurisdiction. According to insider information, the last meeting between Putin and Nazarbayev took place in December 2025, during which, among other things, the fate of the Asia-Pacific Bank, which operates in Russia but belongs to the Nazarbayev family and is one of their most profitable assets, was discussed. Nazarbayev sought personal guarantees from Putin that the asset would not be «seized» from his heirs. According to insiders, Putin provided such guarantees.
Another issue Nazarbayev discussed with Putin was the matter of a successor. It is clear that this does not refer to the formal president of Kazakhstan – that question is closed. The discussion pertains to an informal successor of influence, someone who can maintain a balance among the elites, will not seek revenge against the Nazarbayev family, and at the same time will be acceptable to Moscow.
In expert circles, several figures are being discussed, among whom Imangali Tasmagambetov, an experienced bureaucrat loyal to Nazarbayev and acceptable to the Kremlin, is mentioned, along with a few other representatives of the technocratic elite without pronounced anti-Nazarbayev rhetoric. However, it is Tasmagambetov, known for his active pro-Russian stance, who is considered the one to replace Nazarbayev in the informal role of a figure of Kremlin influence in Kazakhstan.
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Against the backdrop of these visits, a question arises – why does Putin need Nazarbayev, who is currently in a vulnerable position in Kazakhstan, while the younger generation of his family mostly lives in the West and wields no influence at home? Nevertheless, there are reasons for the Russian president to support Nazarbayev.
Putin needs a counterbalance to Tokayev, who seems to have started playing too much at independence. And the Nazarbayev clan, though somewhat battered, has still retained most of its assets and – most importantly – influence, which can play a very significant role here. Putin is interested in demonstrating the fact that even now, he can disrupt Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s plans by activating the Nazarbayev clan.
These meetings in Moscow, where the current leader of Russia and the former president of Kazakhstan demonstratively shake hands and embrace on camera, have a purpose and are meant to remind Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of a simple fact: he should not feel confident as the president of Kazakhstan. They also serve to make other players on the Kazakhstani political scene – participants in the political process, businessmen, and people observing Kazakhstan from abroad – understand that not everything is so straightforward and that a consolidated regime in Kazakhstan, after Nursultan Nazarbayev’s departure from the presidency, never existed and will not exist. And everyone who wants to negotiate anything in Kazakhstan must first negotiate with Putin.
But let us return to Nazarbayev, whose story is an illustration of the main fear of post-Soviet leaders: power ends, and responsibility follows. Not necessarily legal, though that happens too. Responsibility comes in the form of assets that were redistributed in one’s favor and now face others who wish to redistribute them again. In essence, Nazarbayev has encountered what many post-Soviet leaders face after losing power: his capital is no longer politically protected. The negotiations in the Kremlin are not about the present, but about a future without him. About who, and on what terms, will survive the era of Elbasy.
And whether Putin will help here is still a question. He himself is already facing problems similar to Nazarbayev’s: it is not about whether Putin will lose power and influence, but when and how. This may not happen as quickly as many would like, but sooner or later, it will happen. If only due to the age of the Russian president. And then the question of Nazarbayev’s assets and his family in Kazakhstan will arise again. And it may suddenly turn out that he bet on the wrong horse.
